Just How Valuable is a 1st Round Pick Anyway?
Blogs Source:Oil On Whyte - February 14 05:29 PM MST
With any basement dwelling team, trade deadline talk already surrounds the usual suspects, aged veterans and draft picks. Not just any draft picks either, but the ever coveted 1st round pick. Naturally, trade discussion around the Oilers has focused on if when should trade Ales Hemsky and just what price he’ll fetch once the deed is done. Oil On Whyte contributor Grant has a bet going with Jason Gregor, Grant figures the Oilers don’t fetch a 1st round pick, while Gregor believes that a team will pay a 1st to acquire Hemsky. The question that this raises is if Ales Hemsky is worth a 1st round pick, though I prefer to frame the question differently; is a 1st round pick worth Hemsky? To start, one has to realize that not all first round picks are created equal. We see this effect in pre-draft rankings, the 1st round often is broken down into the following brackets, top 3, top 10, and then the rest. For the purposes of this post, I’ve compiled a chart that shows how many NHL games played have been played by all members of draft class, broken down into four brackets; 1-3, 4-10, 11-20, and 21-30. I’ve done this for a ten year block, starting at the 2000 NHL entry draft up until the 2009 draft. I’ve also made a note of how many players never made a significant impact (played less than 100 games) for each draft year, by bracket. Of course, the numbers are slightly higher for the later draft classes, this variable more indicative of players yet to develop than “busts”. Furthermore, due do their untimely passings, Luc Bourdon and Alexei Cherapanov were never given the chance to make an impact at the NHL level. Just How Valuable is a 1st Round Pick Anyway? - Oil On Whyte - Oil On Whyte - An Edmonton Oilers blog